This is one of the toughest markets I have played…
🙁
On September, 24, 2023, I pointed out that the markets are in correction…Since then, on a closing basis, the indices have retreated slightly…however, intraday, the Nasdaq broke through some important supports and then bounced back up, closing down modestly…
| Index | Closing Price on 9/24/2023 | Today’s Close (9/28/2023 | Change | % Change |
| Dow | 33,963.84 | 33,666.34 | –297.50 | –0.88%% |
| SPX | 4,320.06 | 4,299.70 | –20.62 | –0.47%% |
| Nasdaq | 13,211.81 | 13,201.88 | –9.93 | –0.08%% |
The 2 contrarian indicators that help call market bottom, are both moving in the right direction… 🙂
Today, the Put / Call ratio briefly hit 1.17 (good!) but ended the day @ 0.96 (not so good…)
The Fear / Greed number briefly hit 24 (Extreme Fear: Very Good) but then ended the day @27 (Fear)… Still good, but 24 or lower would have been better to help call the bottom…
I believe we are close to the bottom…would however prefer to see the gaps on the Nasdaq and QQQ close before the markets start the next leg up…
Therefore, in light of the above, I believe the bottom is near…
For all I know, the bottom may have already been set and it is all up from here…
However, I doubt it…
I believe the Nasdaq, ideally, should come down to fill the gap @ 12,484.16 formed on May 25, 2023…
Thankfully, my O2W portfolio has 2 QQQ October 20, 2023 Put contracts, Strike price: $345 as insurance in case the markets go down further. The gap on the QQQ chart, shown below, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 but still acts as a proxy of sort to the overall Nasdaq, is another $13+ below my $345 strike price…
Potentially, my QQQ put contracts, should the Nasdaq go down to fill the gap, may actually end up making me some money…we shall see…
BTW, QQQ broke 2 double bottoms in quick succession…one on 9/25/2023 and the other yesterday when it printed $352 on its PnF chart…
Therefore all bounces are suspect… 🙂
In the meantime, my TTI Calls are performing quite well, in spite of the market swoon…
FWIW, I plan to take profits on my TTI call options when the underlying stock hits $7, which I expect it should by next week…
Also, I believe, Intel has completed its pullback and should make a move up going into its earnings report due around October 27, 2023…
I may add to my INTC call options position next week…
Let’s see how the cookies crumble…
Best~
karim
DISCLAIMER: I am not a licensed broker or securities dealer. All postings made here are strictly for my personal record keeping and in no way, shape or form, am I even remotely suggesting others to follow my Buy and Sell moves. Trading options is not for the faint of heart as one’s portfolio can move up, or down 10%-50% or more during a single trading day, so trade with extreme caution. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Full Disclosure: I own options in the stocks of companies mentioned in my posts.